Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 15, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 772.4k, down 68.2k. The 10-year treasury yield edged up a basis point this week to 4.43 percent, but not before ticking 4.49 percent intraday … Continued
A doji or a long-legged doji formed on all the major equity indices last week. With the June-quarter earnings beginning in earnest this week, the reporting companies are looking at a lower hurdle, thanks to a persistent downward revision in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 8, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 840.6k, up 56.9k. Once again, non-commercials are adding to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, with this week adding 7.3 percent … Continued
The major equity indices are building on breakout that took place two weeks ago. This comes amidst already-high valuation multiples and near-record equity allocation by US households. However, with the 2Q earnings reporting season about to get underway, investor sentiment … Continued
Large-caps broke out to new highs last week. Concurrently, Nasdaq/NYSE short interest – just below their respective highs – remains elevated; equity bulls can take advantage of this should they succeed in engineering a squeeze. Buybacks in this regard have … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 24, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, down 72.8k. Futures traders boosted rate-cut expectations this year to three this week – one each in September, October and December. For a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 10, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 724.1k, up 18.8k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the fourth scheduled meeting this year, and four more remain. During the May 6-7 … Continued
Friday’s better-than-expected jobs numbers lit a fire under risk-on assets, including small-caps. This gives large-cap bulls another opportunity to go after February’s record highs. May produced 139,000 non-farm jobs. This was better than expected on the surface, but the prior … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 3, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 705.3k, down 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield acts like it wants to go test trendline resistance from October 2023 when a 16-year high of … Continued
Amid tariff uncertainty and its possibly adverse implications for inflation and corporate earnings, the major US equity indices, after massive rallies post-April lows, are witnessing sellers come out at/near resistance. US consumers are preparing themselves for a jump in inflation … Continued