Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 737.1k, up 25k. In the futures market, traders are once again betting that there would be at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 712k, up 12.2k. Horizontal support at 4.2s-4.3s goes back years. Last week, the 10-year treasury yield closed at 4.23 percent. It was a make-or-break. … Continued
The S&P 500 trades at elevated multiples. Earnings expectations for this year and next are very high. Enter macro uncertainty surrounding the fiscal/tariff policy of the Trump administration. Consumer sentiment has tumbled in recent months, and there are signs of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 699.9k, down 9.7k. Non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures are down nearly 39 percent from the record 1.1 million contracts in the week … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 709.5k, down 41.5k. FOMC minutes for the January 28-29 meeting contained some interesting tidbits, including members’ citation of the possible effects of potential changes … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 751k, up 43.3k. FOMC minutes for the January 28-29 meeting will be out Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 707.7k, up 7.1k. Friday, the University of Michigan consumer survey was published for February, and it was revealed that the respondents meaningfully raised their … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.6k, up 120.4k. As expected, the FOMC this week left the fed funds rate unchanged at a range of 425 basis points to 450 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 580.2k, up 12.3k. The FOMC meets next week. The 28-29 meeting is the first this year. It is certain the fed funds rate will … Continued
Earnings Season is upon us. Fourth-quarter estimates for S&P 500 companies customarily have been gradually revised lower over the past several months. Heading into this, equities rallied huge last week, although the major US indices are off their December highs. … Continued