CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued

Big Tech Ready To Report – Make-Or-Break For Tech-Heavy Indices, Which Are Giving Out Signs Of Fatigue

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The next couple of weeks are big for tech earnings. MSFT, GOOG and AMZN report this week, and AAPL the next, among others. Leading into this, consensus estimates have trended lower, and stocks have rallied to multi-month highs. Concurrently, market … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, up 41k. Non-commercials added another 41,004 contracts to their already-elevated holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. The 680,081 count is the … Continued

After Decent Rally In Recent Weeks, Sellers Get Active At Resistance On Major Equity Indices; Mar CPI On Wed

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 1

Ahead of Wednesday’s March CPI and after a nice two- to three-week rally, sellers show up at important resistance on major US equity indices. With the daily in overbought territory, the bias is to the downside near term. Trader expectations … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 316.9k, down 59.5k. The Bank of Japan, which began to use its balance sheet as a policy tool much earlier than its peers in … Continued

Major Indices Fail To Save Recent Breakouts, But Bulls Have Not Quite Given Up Yet

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on Monday broke out of ascending triangle but only to reverse hard lower. That said, bulls have not quite given up yet. They continue to show up at/near shorter-term moving averages. Before this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 294.1k, up 26.8k. Minutes for the FOMC meeting on November 2-3 will be out next Wednesday. At the conclusion of the meeting, the Fed … Continued

S&P 500’s Divergence With Historically Reliable Metrics Possibly Caused By Fed’s Bond-Buying Program, Which Is Being Tapered

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 keeps rallying to new highs, breaking down historical relationships with several metrics. It is possible the Fed’s expanding balance sheet is causing all this divergence. If it is, then the central bank will stop expanding its asset … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 267.3k, down 1.3k. Bond bears (on price) have managed to defend support at low-to mid-1.40s on the 10-year treasury yield. On Tuesday last week, … Continued