Heard yesterday on Bloomberg Radio that U.S. consumption of boats and RVs is through the roof; RV sales are back to pre-Great Recession days, even as sales of boats are below that watermark but remain very healthy. These items tend … Continued
Short interest continues to inch up. By June-end, Nasdaq’s went up 0.6 percent period-over-period to 8.9bn – highest since end-September 2008 – and NYSE’s edged up 0.7 percent p/p to 14.6bn. What is going on in the Naz in particular … Continued
Debt can be both a boon and a bane. Used properly, it can be a very useful tool – be it to an individual, a business, or a government. Too much of it at the same time can unleash destructive … Continued
In many ways, this cycle has been like none other. Equities continue to grind higher. Multiples (valuation) continue to expand. The Fed continues to provide support – both monetary and verbal. Equity bulls continue to throw the caution flag out … Continued
For the last five years, the S&P 500 index has bounced up and down within a channel. Technicals have been in gross overbought territory for a while now. The last time the index had a 10-percent correction was two years … Continued
The euro so far is trading exactly as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi did not disappoint. Yesterday, the refi rate (main lending rate) was cut to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent and the deposit rate to negative 0.1 percent from … Continued
In discussing the dynamics behind the U.S. bond market early this week, an important variable got left out. The chart below plots the budget situation of the U.S. government against issuance by the Treasury of notes and bonds. This gives … Continued
As 2014 began, growth expectations were very high for the U.S. economy. In fact, every year since the recession ended mid-2009, economists’ GDP forecasts have been on the optimistic side, only to be progressively cut back as the year progresses. … Continued
One valuation tool equity bulls consistently use to justify current stock valuations – as well as to argue for further multiple expansion – is by comparing bond yield to earnings yield. There is a metric known as ‘bond equity earnings … Continued
The phrase quantitative easing elicits diverse reaction. For some, QE was what saved the U.S. economy post 2007/2008 crisis and boosted both housing and stocks. For others, all it did was create this huge asset inflation, and further widen the … Continued