Ahead of ECB meeting, euro misery continues Draghi under pressure to deliver news of more stimulus Large speculators look tentative and sitting on massive net shorts When early October, FXE, the euro ETF, was unable to hold on to 126-127, … Continued
Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued
FXE breaks one more crucial technical support Large speculators’ euro net shorts at 26-mo high, but flattish in recent weeks Market reaction to Draghi’s asset-purchase plans will be a tell regarding euro’s near-term direction Still a wait-and-see on the euro … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
As discussed last week that non-commercial futures traders might just once again be ahead of the curve in anticipating market reaction to Thursday’s ECB decision, they indeed were. By Tuesday (last week), they had raised net shorts in euro futures … Continued
The expected decline in the euro never came. Back on August 11, it looked like the currency was ready for a bounce. Just a bounce, as long-term technicals were only midway through unwinding overbought conditions hence did not call for … Continued
Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee, voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in August, the minutes released yesterday showed. Market participants were taken by surprise. They have been conditioned … Continued
Non-commercials further added to net shorts in euro futures. They are now net short 129k contracts – a two-year high. In recent weeks these large speculators have been adding more shorts than cutting longs. Since early June, they cut longs … Continued
There is a lot of chatter these days around imminent asset purchases by the ECB. Speaking to the press post-Governing Council meeting yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi hinted as much, saying policy makers are unanimous in their willingness to use … Continued
The euro so far is trading exactly as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi did not disappoint. Yesterday, the refi rate (main lending rate) was cut to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent and the deposit rate to negative 0.1 percent from … Continued