Yesterday’s lows significant for at least rest of December

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. stocks quickly shake off China- and Greece-induced worries Can bulls use the reversal as opportunity to mount a breakout on Russell 2000? Several technical indicators have room to move higher still before they get overbought Whoa!  Some reversal that … Continued

Small-caps’ probable path of least resistance remains down

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Laggards since March, small-caps continue to fall behind large-caps With increasing signs of distribution, RUT, IWM face technical hurdles More pressure ahead if/when non-commercials start adding to net shorts Since end-September, large speculators have drastically cut back on their net … Continued

Offensives’ performance last wk trend change or passing Dec phenomenon?

Inability of offensives to take the lead has been a thorn in the side of rally since Oct 15th low Outperformance last week of XLY vs. XLP and HYG vs. LQD sign of trend change? Duel on between seasonally favorable … Continued

OPEC/shale oil brinkmanship begins — who will blink first?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

2014 on track for 3rd successive year of $300bn-plus high-yield issuance; energy 15% of junk market By not cutting 30mn bpd production target, OPEC ready to lock horns with shale oil As both sides play game of ‘who will blink … Continued

Small-caps continue to hang back, RUT at important level

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-caps continue to lag their larger brethren RUT sitting on three-month resistance, breakout could be crucial Breakout not probable as bulls have already used up plenty of energy past five weeks Enough ink has been spilled over the issue of … Continued

Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued

Bulls have baton, but grip is easing

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Big tailwind for stocks has come from grossly oversold technical conditions Several indicators are lagging – failing to confirm recovery highs in major U.S. indices Some signs stocks want to rest; could be important as SPX sits right underneath major … Continued

Bulls on back foot, bears have spring in step

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

200-day moving average perceived by many as demarcation line between bull and bear market VIX surges past 17-18 and nears two-year-plus 21-22 resistance, but yet to retreat (Re) action at/near previous breakdown points to decide who wins out Defensive sectors … Continued

Bulls have one more opportunity to take crack at resistance

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls and bears lock up horns in quest to dictate near-term direction Last week’s lows saved on major indices, amidst very bullish engulfing patterns VIX once again rejected at/near 17-18; one more opportunity for bulls to take out resistance … Continued

Equities hammering out near-term bottom

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued