Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 307.7k, down 147.1k. The 10-year treasury yield peaked last October at five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise), subsequently bottoming at 3.79 percent in … Continued
Both Monday and last Friday, VIX failed to keep most of its gains. Amidst this, there is strong support at 11-12, and a 10- and 20-day crossover seems imminent. Concurrently, the S&P 500 formed back-to-back hanging man, which is bearish … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued
Last week brought another positive week for equity bulls, with the major US equity indices rallying for a fourth consecutive week. Amidst this, how the indices traded the last two sessions should give the bears some hope. Equity bulls used … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 433k, up 79k. In an FOMC week in which Chair Jerome Powell was anything but a hawk, aided by weaker-than-expected economic data including April’s … Continued
Markets were on pins and needles as to if Powell would be open to the possibility of a rate hike. He hardly sounded hawkish Wednesday. A dovish message hardly helps cool down the positive wealth effect coming from equities and … Continued
The major US equity indices closed last week either right on or in slight breach of trendline support from last October’s low. Bulls’ mettle is being tested, even as investor sentiment remains too giddy. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week … Continued
Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued