Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 24, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, down 72.8k. Futures traders boosted rate-cut expectations this year to three this week – one each in September, October and December. For a … Continued
Trendline support on VIX from last July’s low was once again defended last week. Concurrently, large-cap indices in particular keep attracting sell orders near their February highs. Last week, volatility bulls defended last July’s rising trendline for the third straight … Continued
Unless the Fed surprises the markets with a markedly dovish message on Wednesday, the major US equity indices act like they want lower prints for now. Large-cap indices last week came so close but failed to top February highs. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 10, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 724.1k, up 18.8k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the fourth scheduled meeting this year, and four more remain. During the May 6-7 … Continued
Friday’s better-than-expected jobs numbers lit a fire under risk-on assets, including small-caps. This gives large-cap bulls another opportunity to go after February’s record highs. May produced 139,000 non-farm jobs. This was better than expected on the surface, but the prior … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 3, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 705.3k, down 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield acts like it wants to go test trendline resistance from October 2023 when a 16-year high of … Continued
Amid tariff uncertainty and its possibly adverse implications for inflation and corporate earnings, the major US equity indices, after massive rallies post-April lows, are witnessing sellers come out at/near resistance. US consumers are preparing themselves for a jump in inflation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 27, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 769.6k, down 81.8k. Non-commercials seem to be anticipating lower yields ahead. They remain heavily net short 10-year note futures but have been actively cutting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 20, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 851.4k, down 38.9k. FOMC minutes for the May 6-7 meeting are due out next Wednesday. As expected, the fed funds rate was left steady … Continued
The rally since early-April lows has equity bulls aggressively expressing their sentiment in options, which, should the current trajectory persist, will have potentially reached a dangerous level soon. Optimism is in the air. Equity longs are expressing this in the … Continued