Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 13, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 890.4k, down 62.8k. The good thing is that the US has lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent, even as … Continued
After massive rallies off the early-April lows, the major US equity indices are bumping against potentially crucial resistance. Pre-opening, futures are strong, reacting to the agreement between the US and China to slash tariffs; small-cap reaction will be a big … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 29, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 871.5k, down 34.5k. The FOMC meets next week. The two-day meeting ending Wednesday is the year’s third, and five more remain after this. During … Continued
Early signs of tariff repercussions are appearing. Companies are withdrawing their forward guidance. It is just a matter of time before this reverberates through elevated earnings estimates for both this year and next. All this comes at a time when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 22, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 906.1k, down 31.6k. A dramatic confrontation between the White House and the Federal Reserve has been put off – for now. President Donald Trump … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,078.5k, up 215.2k. Non-commercials raised net shorts in 10-year note futures by 24.9 percent this week to 1.08 million contracts – now merely 6.1 … Continued
Amid fears of tariffs-induced economic slowdown/contraction and indiscriminate selling of stocks, equity bulls are hoping for signs of stability and a relief rally. It has been 11 quarters since the US economy shrank. The contraction took place in 1Q22, dropping … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.3k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the March 18-19 meeting will be out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was left steady at a range … Continued
Through 4Q24, buybacks continued to act as a tailwind, while margin debt fell in February from January’s fresh record. The latter in particular is at risk of continued downward pressure. At the end of the December quarter, US households’ equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 25, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 810.1k, down 71.3k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures sequentially, but holdings remain elevated. In the week to October 1st last year, … Continued