Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 506.9k, down 63.1k. In the past month, the 10-year treasury yield went from 4.04 percent on March 8th to Thursday’s high of 4.59 percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 578.3k, up 4.3k. Well, looks like a battle of sorts is brewing within the FOMC. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has … Continued
Equity bears came up short last week, unable to take benefit of an opportunity to put the bulls on the defensive. Momentum remains with the bulls. With the S&P 500 having already rallied 28 percent from last October’s low, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 574k, down 29.5k. It was almost as if Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, did not want equities to go lower. That is the feeling … Continued
The major US equity indices closed last week either right on or in slight breach of trendline support from last October’s low. Bulls’ mettle is being tested, even as investor sentiment remains too giddy. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued
With two more sessions to go this week, last week’s potentially bearish candle is not yet confirmed on the S&P 500. Concurrently, the bullish view continues to gather momentum as the ratio of Investors Intelligence bulls to bears crossed four … Continued
Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued