VIX has gone flat the last four weeks, even as the S&P 500 is posting newer highs. Yes, large-cap indices scored important breakouts four weeks ago, but meaningfully building on it is proving difficult. The S&P 500’s earnings yield is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 15, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 772.4k, down 68.2k. The 10-year treasury yield edged up a basis point this week to 4.43 percent, but not before ticking 4.49 percent intraday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 8, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 840.6k, up 56.9k. Once again, non-commercials are adding to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, with this week adding 7.3 percent … Continued
Large-caps broke out to new highs last week. Concurrently, Nasdaq/NYSE short interest – just below their respective highs – remains elevated; equity bulls can take advantage of this should they succeed in engineering a squeeze. Buybacks in this regard have … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 24, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, down 72.8k. Futures traders boosted rate-cut expectations this year to three this week – one each in September, October and December. For a … Continued
Unless the Fed surprises the markets with a markedly dovish message on Wednesday, the major US equity indices act like they want lower prints for now. Large-cap indices last week came so close but failed to top February highs. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 10, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 724.1k, up 18.8k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the fourth scheduled meeting this year, and four more remain. During the May 6-7 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 3, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 705.3k, down 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield acts like it wants to go test trendline resistance from October 2023 when a 16-year high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 27, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 769.6k, down 81.8k. Non-commercials seem to be anticipating lower yields ahead. They remain heavily net short 10-year note futures but have been actively cutting … Continued
IWM short interest is elevated, and margin debt is down from January’s record. Amidst this, there is tariff uncertainty when it comes to fundamentals, likely forcing small-cap traders to put more weight on technicals. IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) shorts … Continued