Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 889.4k, up 102.4k. At an annualized $709.9 billion, December’s retail sales were strong, better than expected and set a record. January’s preliminary count showed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 787k, down 45.6k. The 200-day moving average (4.06 percent), which coincides with horizontal resistance at 4.1 percent, is standing like a rock. Since this … Continued
The S&P 500 – a stone’s throw away from a fresh high – has gone sideways the past two weeks at just under 4800. Thursday’s CPI-induced selloff was bought. Persistently lowered 4Q23 earnings estimates can act as a tailwind for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued
Something is afoot in the bond land – in how bond shorts are viewing things. They have used the sharp decline in the 10-year T-yield post-December 13th FOMC meeting to aggressively go short these notes, betting on higher rates. They … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805k, up 117.4k. Non-commercials are not pulling back. Far from it! Their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures went up another 17.1 … Continued
Consumer credit is at a record high, including auto loans. Already stretched, consumers are now having to deal with higher rates. Evidently, consumer sentiment remains suppressed. This has the potential to seriously impact retail sales next year – negatively, of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued
Small-caps rallied huge last week in reaction to the so-called Fed pivot. That said, no sooner did Powell deliver that message last Wednesday, leading to futures traders now demanding six cuts next year, than three different FOMC members came out … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued