Interest rates on both the short and long end have gone up meaningfully. The federal government sits on nearly $33 trillion in debt, and the budget deficit is on the rise even though the economy is growing. This only means … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 623.8k, down 5.8k. This week, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 525 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 629.6k, down 5.6k. The FOMC meets next week. Ahead of this, the fed funds rate was left unchanged in the June meeting, pausing for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 635.1k, down 145.5k. Last week’s channel breakout did not amount to much this week. Last October, the 10-year treasury yield retreated after tagging 4.33 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 780.7k, down 20.3k. Non-commercials’ persistence is paying off. They are – have been – sitting on loads of net shorts in 10-year note futures, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 801k, up 51k. FOMC minutes for the June 13-14 meeting are due out Wednesday. In that meeting, after raising the fed funds rate uninterrupted … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 20, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 750k, up 58.1k. The Bank of England’s unexpected 50-basis-point hike on Thursday to five percent highlights central bankers’ increasing frustration with inflation that is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 13, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.9k, down 61.8k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures for the second week in a row. In the last couple of weeks, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 753.7k, down 96.7k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. After raising the fed funds rate by 500 basis points since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 30, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 850.4k, up 78.8k. Non-commercials are hanging on to a losing trade. The 10-year treasury yield retreated last October after touching 4.33 percent. Just a … Continued