Large-cap bulls are on the rampage. Sell-side analysts are egging them on, as they continue to lower June-quarter earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Some sentiment readings look dangerously elevated. Equity bulls are not taking a break. They have been … Continued
The June-quarter earnings season is upon us, and US equity indices increasingly are giving out signs of fatigue. Halfway through, they have already rallied mid- to high-teen percent this year. Digestion of these gains is the path of least resistance … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
The Russell 2000’s continued difficulty at 2100 runs in contrast to one after another high notched by large-cap indices such as the S&P 500. That said, last week’s weekly gravestone doji on the Nasdaq 100 is worth watching. After unsuccessfully … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 578.3k, up 4.3k. Well, looks like a battle of sorts is brewing within the FOMC. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has … Continued
Equity bears came up short last week, unable to take benefit of an opportunity to put the bulls on the defensive. Momentum remains with the bulls. With the S&P 500 having already rallied 28 percent from last October’s low, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 574k, down 29.5k. It was almost as if Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, did not want equities to go lower. That is the feeling … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 24, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 563.4k, down 147.4k. The FOMC meets next week. After this, there is only one scheduled meeting left this year – on December 12-13. The … Continued
With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 3, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 733.9k, up 1.9k. The FOMC minutes for the September 19-20 meeting will be reported on Wednesday. As expected, the fed funds rate was left … Continued