Equities failed to rally last Wednesday, when the FOMC handed out a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Stocks had a very nice session on Thursday. With that said, the last three daily candles on the S&P 500, which did rise to a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,094k, up 71.9k. The fed funds rate was cut by 50 basis points to a range of 475 basis points to 500 basis points. … Continued
The S&P 500 sits less than a percent from its July high and is positioned well for a breakout. The Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are nowhere near their respective highs, but they too have breakout opportunities to add … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 860.2k, up 84k. FOMC minutes for the July (30-31) meeting will come out Wednesday. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 776.2k, up 47.7k. At 3.94 percent, the 10-year treasury yield remains under four percent but is substantially off Monday’s intraday low of 3.67 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 641.9k, up 4.4k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth meeting this year, and three more remain. It is certain the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 637.5k, up 219.6k. Non-commercials showed aggression in raising net shorts in 10-year-note futures to a 19-week high. In the week to January 16th, they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 417.9k, up 72.5k. Futures traders this week jacked up their rate-cutting bets for this year. They now expect, with 90 percent probability, the first … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 307.7k, down 147.1k. The 10-year treasury yield peaked last October at five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise), subsequently bottoming at 3.79 percent in … Continued