Through 4Q24, buybacks continued to act as a tailwind, while margin debt fell in February from January’s fresh record. The latter in particular is at risk of continued downward pressure. At the end of the December quarter, US households’ equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 25, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 810.1k, down 71.3k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures sequentially, but holdings remain elevated. In the week to October 1st last year, … Continued
After dropping by low double digits from their February all-time highs, the major large-cap equity indices are showing signs of a bottom – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Between February 19th when the S&P 500 reached a fresh intraday high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 881.4k, up 144.3k. As expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate steady at a range of 425 basis points to 450 basis points. … Continued
Equities have been under pressure the last several weeks. Investor sentiment has taken a beating. Amidst this came signs last Friday that a relief could be in the making. With the major equity indices under selling pressure for at least … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 737.1k, up 25k. In the futures market, traders are once again betting that there would be at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the fed … Continued
The major US equity indices have now dropped for three weeks. Amidst this, last Friday’s action should bode well for the bulls – at least in the near term. The ratio of VIX to VXV ended last week at the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 712k, up 12.2k. Horizontal support at 4.2s-4.3s goes back years. Last week, the 10-year treasury yield closed at 4.23 percent. It was a make-or-break. … Continued
The S&P 500 trades at elevated multiples. Earnings expectations for this year and next are very high. Enter macro uncertainty surrounding the fiscal/tariff policy of the Trump administration. Consumer sentiment has tumbled in recent months, and there are signs of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 699.9k, down 9.7k. Non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures are down nearly 39 percent from the record 1.1 million contracts in the week … Continued