Fed has openly discussed benefits of wealth effect; now adds another tool – talking down dollar Six years into recovery post-crisis, U.S. economy yet to witness escape velocity Dovish FOMC message fails to ignite sustained rally in US equities These … Continued
Equity bulls and bears lock up horns in quest to dictate near-term direction Last week’s lows saved on major indices, amidst very bullish engulfing patterns VIX once again rejected at/near 17-18; one more opportunity for bulls to take out resistance … Continued
U.S. dollar suffered six-year downtrend before embarking on multi-year consolidation phase Recent pullback in the wake of parabolic move, amid grossly overbought technicals Too soon to say if breakout is reversal or continuation of prior trend If the US dollar … Continued
Gold, still near key technical level, generates some interest from longs Dollar has spent lots of energy last 12 weeks, looks tired Potential for reflex rally on GLD rises Phew! Sighs of relief expressed by gold bugs. The metal managed … Continued
In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued
Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued
FXE breaks one more crucial technical support Large speculators’ euro net shorts at 26-mo high, but flattish in recent weeks Market reaction to Draghi’s asset-purchase plans will be a tell regarding euro’s near-term direction Still a wait-and-see on the euro … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
VIX action yesterday constructive for equity bulls Medium- to long-term, equities have much more to go on the downside Near-term picture beginning to change, as beaten-down junk bonds and small-caps attract bids The morning gap-down in U.S. equities yesterday was … Continued
Large speculators in Russell 2000 futures showing aggression, net shorts highest since June 2011 IWM short interest gradually on decline since end-July, stock seems to find support at 110 Too early to say support will hold medium-term, but a trade … Continued