Even as 10-year attracts bids, non-commercials’ net shorts at four-year high

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy | 0

10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid.  A … Continued

Markit expects Dec U.S. private payroll growth of sub-200k; oil to blame?

posted in: Economy | 0

Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued

Bulls retake baton, as RUT eyes golden cross

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

After impressive two-day advance, Russell 2000 on verge of bullish golden cross Potential unwinding of VIX surge of early this week to act as tailwind for stocks In the end, rally nothing but gift for patient bears to short from … Continued

Recent gold action waves caution flag

posted in: Technicals, Uncategorized | 0

Gold fails to generate enough buying interest near important support levels Despite oodles of central-bank printing, inflation remains a no-show 1,180 next line of sand, which is not too far away; must-hold Remember the chart below?  This was from Monday … Continued

Fed in a bind, odds of rate rise next year slim to none

posted in: Economy | 0

Market expectations for rate hike next year runs risk of disappointment With monetary quiver nearly empty, Fed very much focused on wealth effect Job even more difficult, given adverse effects of cheap money beginning to loom Markets are sending mixed … Continued

VIX spike-buy signal in the making near-term?

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Sellers take advantage of early-morning strength to sell more stocks Amidst this, transports, high-yields draw buyers; panic noticed in VIX:VXV action Trade could be developing, but given developments in energy space, sustained rally not probable Another ugly day!  Could have … Continued

Gold overbought near-term, but continues to hold up well

posted in: Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Soft fundamentals, but gold continues to hold up well Large speculators added further to their net longs in gold futures Overbought near-term, but potential weakness likely gets bought near support Trend followers do what they do best.  Large speculators are … Continued

Collapse in oil price to rock hitherto-stable unemployment-claims boat?

posted in: Economy | 0

U.S. unemployment claims near historical lows, job cuts subdued In a sea of stability, could an ocean of troubles be lurking? Crude drop in oil price has potential to throw a curve It is always cheap – and prudent – … Continued