After three or four down weeks, major US equity indices have reached decent support. Right here and now, odds favor bulls more than bears. From its July 27th high through last Wednesday’s low, the S&P 500 gave back eight percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 732k, up 29.7k. The 10-year treasury yield continued higher, up 14 basis points from last week to 4.57 percent. On Thuresday, rates rose as … Continued
The sell-side just bumped up estimates for S&P 600 operating earnings for both this year and next. The Russell 2000 does not give a hoot. Small-caps act weak – much weaker than large-caps. If they are sending the right signal, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 702.3k, down 42k. The 10-year treasury yield this week made what could turn out to be an important breakout. Or could it? Last October, … Continued
This week’s dot plot indicated one more hike is possible this year. Equity bulls did not want to hear this. In the futures market, a wide gap remains between what fed funds traders see things and what the Fed tells … Continued
Near-term, equity bulls may just have wasted an opportunity to put their foot down. Mid- to long-term, both margin debt and share buybacks are no longer a potent tailwind as they once were. FINRA margin debt dropped 2.9 percent month-over-month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 744.3k, down 47.2k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the sixth scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one each in … Continued
Buybacks acted as a massive tailwind leading up to and as the S&P 500 peaked in January last year. Spending has come down quite a bit and is increasingly turning into a headwind. Share buybacks by S&P 500 companies are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 5, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 791.5k, down 14k. Non-commercials reduced their massive holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, but nothing major. At 791,535 contracts, positions remain within … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 29, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805.6k, up 110.7k. Non-commercials aggressively added to net shorts in 10-year note futures. This week’s count of 805,553 contracts is merely 5.6 percent from … Continued