Markets have amped up rate-cut expectations for both this year and next, with some even ludicrously calling for a 50-basis-point reduction in next month’s FOMC meeting. Inflation has trended higher the last four-five months. This makes it difficult for the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 12, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 942.2k, down 17.6k. Minutes for the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are due next Wednesday. Despite repeated demands for lower short rates by President Donald … Continued
The stark difference between large- and small-cap performance remains a thorn in the side of the bull market. This is also corroborated in the June-quarter earnings numbers thus far. In the meantime, as tech-led large-caps snapped back sharply last week, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 5, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 959.8k, up 63.2k. Non-commercials aggressively added to their net shorts in 10-year note futures, raising their holdings by seven percent to 959,834 contracts – … Continued
Overbought equities took it on the chin last week, with the S&P 500 producing a bearish candle on the weekly. But before the bears could hang their hat on this, the ratio of VIX to VXV may not fully cooperate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 29, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 896.6k, up 147.1k. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman did something that has not happened since 1993. They dissented in this week’s FOMC meeting. … Continued
With index-level short interest near record highs, equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. But with so much riding on Magnificent 7, which have already rallied big into earnings, the possibility of a sell-the-news phenomenon cannot be rejected outright. At … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 22, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.5k, down 22.8k. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week. The two-day (Tuesday-Wednesday) affair will be the fifth scheduled meeting this year, … Continued
VIX has gone flat the last four weeks, even as the S&P 500 is posting newer highs. Yes, large-cap indices scored important breakouts four weeks ago, but meaningfully building on it is proving difficult. The S&P 500’s earnings yield is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 15, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 772.4k, down 68.2k. The 10-year treasury yield edged up a basis point this week to 4.43 percent, but not before ticking 4.49 percent intraday … Continued