September-quarter buybacks by S&P 500 companies were decent, but the four-quarter total is on a decelerating trend. These companies will probably get an opportunity to buy their shares at a cheaper price next quarter. Investor sentiment is too complacent and … Continued
Small-caps rallied huge last week in reaction to the so-called Fed pivot. That said, no sooner did Powell deliver that message last Wednesday, leading to futures traders now demanding six cuts next year, than three different FOMC members came out … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued
Even though Chair Powell said it is far too early to declare victory, he and his team did exactly that yesterday when they caught markets by surprise by making a hard dovish turn. The dot plot now expects up to … Continued
Complacency among equity bulls is growing but not extreme yet. With the S&P 500 ending last week right at the July high and breakout odds rising post-FOMC Wednesday, options-related sentiment readings can soon begin to flash red. From July 27th … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 5, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 636.5k, down 48.9k. The FOMC meets next Tuesday-Wednesday. This will be the year’s last meeting. They are expected to do nothing. The last hike … Continued
The Russell 2000 had a phenomenal Friday as rate-cut expectations were brought forward to March. Futures traders now expect five cuts next year – unlikely unless the US economy craters, in which case small-caps will take the brunt of the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 685.4k, up 27.2k. Non-commercials do not seem ready to let go of their bearish bias just yet. This week, their holdings of net shorts … Continued
Stocks have done very well this month, pushing the major equity indices into overbought territory. Several other metrics are extended but not extreme. This should give the bulls an opportunity to continue to ride the momentum, but can they pull … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for having cashed in on last Tuesday’s CPI report, which was just a tad better than expected. With three up weeks in a row, the S&P 500 – as overbought as it is on the daily … Continued