CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1.04mn, up 177.9k. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” The quote is from Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, in his keynote address … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued

Bears Owned Last Thu, Bulls Denied Them Continued Momentum Fri – This Week Is Key

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears had a great session last Thursday as a bearish engulfing candle developed on several indices, but bulls promptly denied them continued momentum on Friday. This week is key. From last October’s low through last Thursday’s high, the S&P … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 401k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the April 30-May 1 meeting out Wednesday showed members were worried over slow progress on inflation. For the … Continued

Overbought, Tired US Equity Indices Saw Thu’s NVDA-Induced Early Strength Dissipate Quickly – For Nasty Reversal By Close

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

An overbought market that increasingly looked fatigued used Thursday’s NVDA-ignited early pop as an opportunity to lock in gains. After this intraday reversal, bulls are running out of catalysts – for now. On the 15th (this month) when April’s softer-than-expected … Continued

Amidst Pervasive Bullish Sentiment, Signs Of Exhaustion Show Up In US Equity Indices

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued

Equity Bulls And Bears Defend Their Turf; Former Has Opportunity To Cash In On Bearish Sentiment That Has Built Up In Options

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 saw buyers and sellers pounce on opportunity at important technical levels. Bulls have an opportunity to cash in on bearish sentiment that has sharply risen of late in the options market. For that, … Continued