Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.7k, down 104.7k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the first meeting this year, and seven more – the scheduled ones – remain. … Continued
The S&P 500 last week joined its peers to break out to new highs. More gains are likely in the near term. Mid-to long-term prospects are dependent on if the recent improvement seen in margin debt and equity flows persists. … Continued
Equities stumble out of the 2024 blocks. In the final sessions of December, the major US indices had either just broken out to new highs or were close to doing that. It remains to be seen if the weakness since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805k, up 117.4k. Non-commercials are not pulling back. Far from it! Their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures went up another 17.1 … Continued
It is probable the 10-year T-yield has peaked at five percent. In this scenario, a sustained move lower will put shorts, who were heavily betting on higher rates, under pressure to cover. Two weeks ago, the 10-year treasury yield met … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 713k, down 20.9k. The 10-year treasury yield was volatile this week, to say the least. The five sessions went like this – up, down, … Continued
With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued