Bears Owned Last Thu, Bulls Denied Them Continued Momentum Fri – This Week Is Key

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears had a great session last Thursday as a bearish engulfing candle developed on several indices, but bulls promptly denied them continued momentum on Friday. This week is key. From last October’s low through last Thursday’s high, the S&P … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 401k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the April 30-May 1 meeting out Wednesday showed members were worried over slow progress on inflation. For the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.8k, down 133.8k. The 10-year had an important test this week. Thursday’s intraday low of 4.32 percent was a successful test of horizontal support … Continued

Equity Bulls Probably Eyeing Wed’s CPI To Give Additional Boost To Weary Indices

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

If Wednesday’s CPI for April cooperates, equity bulls will try to use it to build on last three weeks’ momentum. Major US equity indices have rallied back to just under their all-time highs from March but are giving out signs … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 481.6k, up 48.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of Tuesday, holdings closed at 481,620 contracts, up from … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Retreats Shortly After Eclipsing Nov ’21 Record, S&P 500 Comes Within Spitting Distance of Jan ’22 Peak

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Equities stumble out of the 2024 blocks. In the final sessions of December, the major US indices had either just broken out to new highs or were close to doing that. It remains to be seen if the weakness since … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 732k, up 29.7k. The 10-year treasury yield continued higher, up 14 basis points from last week to 4.57 percent. On Thuresday, rates rose as … Continued

Near-Term, In FOMC Week, Reduced Volatility Likely To Help Equity Bulls; Medium- To Long-Term, No Fed Pivot Forthcoming

Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued