In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued
Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
NYSE margin debt rises slightly in August, hovers near all-time highs Since 2009, margin debt has closely tracked expansion/contraction in Fed’s balance sheet Margin debt to drop when institutions, badly looking for buyers to sell into, run out of patience … Continued
The sun always rises in the east and sets in the west. But in life, things are not always this straightforward. Besides black and white, there is this thing called gray. And in the gray territory, things can get confusing. … Continued
As we await the FOMC statement this afternoon, the adjacent chart is apropos. In it, US federal debt has been plotted against interest payments (seasonally adjusted annual rates) of the federal government. The latter is calculated as a share of … Continued
Less than two weeks ago, when the S&P 500 Large Cap Index was giving out signs of fatigue, the VIX was giving out signs of stability. The former went on to post a new all-time high early this month, even … Continued
Tick, tick, tick. That is the sound of the clock ticking for the first rate hike by the Fed. It is coming sooner than expected. So it seems. Or, is it? At least that is how the market seems to … Continued
Another year, another record issuance! Probably. US corporate bond issuance is on course for another record year. August-to-date, as per the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, corporations have issued $939.2bn, of which investment-grade is $738.2bn and high-yield $201.1bn. In … Continued
As discussed last week that non-commercial futures traders might just once again be ahead of the curve in anticipating market reaction to Thursday’s ECB decision, they indeed were. By Tuesday (last week), they had raised net shorts in euro futures … Continued