Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 713k, down 20.9k. The 10-year treasury yield was volatile this week, to say the least. The five sessions went like this – up, down, … Continued
After a rip-roaring rally since last October’s bottom, major US indices stopped at what could turn out to be make-or-break resistance. Sentiment is not frothy but elevated enough to cause unwinding, and multiples have only expanded since the end of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 753.7k, down 96.7k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. After raising the fed funds rate by 500 basis points since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 771.6k, up 79.2k. It took them a while, but futures traders have at long last stopped wasting money expecting an improbable outcome. Until last … Continued
Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
The next couple of weeks are big for tech earnings. MSFT, GOOG and AMZN report this week, and AAPL the next, among others. Leading into this, consensus estimates have trended lower, and stocks have rallied to multi-month highs. Concurrently, market … Continued