The jobs market has meaningfully decelerated the last four months. In the futures market, traders are pricing in six cuts in the next 15 months. The major equity indices are sitting on tons of gains from the April lows; concurrently, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 2, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 868.4k, down 15.5k. Non-farm payrolls continue to disappoint. August only produced 22,000 jobs, with June revised lower into a minus column – the first … Continued
With massive gains post-April lows, the major US equity indices are showing signs of fatigue. This is taking place a couple of weeks before the upcoming FOMC meeting in which markets have locked in a 25-basis-point cut in the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 26, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 883.8k, down 61.7k. Unlike his first four-year term, President Donald Trump’s preoccupation with the Federal Reserve has gone up meaningfully during his second term. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 19, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 945.5k, up 3.3k. Chair Jerome Powell used Friday’s Jackson Hole speech to suggest a rate cut is coming in the next meeting, which is … Continued
Markets have amped up rate-cut expectations for both this year and next, with some even ludicrously calling for a 50-basis-point reduction in next month’s FOMC meeting. Inflation has trended higher the last four-five months. This makes it difficult for the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 12, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 942.2k, down 17.6k. Minutes for the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are due next Wednesday. Despite repeated demands for lower short rates by President Donald … Continued
The stark difference between large- and small-cap performance remains a thorn in the side of the bull market. This is also corroborated in the June-quarter earnings numbers thus far. In the meantime, as tech-led large-caps snapped back sharply last week, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 5, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 959.8k, up 63.2k. Non-commercials aggressively added to their net shorts in 10-year note futures, raising their holdings by seven percent to 959,834 contracts – … Continued
Overbought equities took it on the chin last week, with the S&P 500 producing a bearish candle on the weekly. But before the bears could hang their hat on this, the ratio of VIX to VXV may not fully cooperate … Continued