The S&P 500 sits less than a percent from its July high and is positioned well for a breakout. The Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are nowhere near their respective highs, but they too have breakout opportunities to add … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,022.1k, up 19.3k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting next Tuesday. This will be the sixth meeting this year, and two more remain – … Continued
Equity bulls agonizingly failed to turn a potentially lucrative technical setup on the S&P 500 to their advantage. The Russell 2000 already has not been able to escape a two-plus-year range and the Nasdaq 100 has of late transitioned from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,002.8k, up 88.4k. The economy produced a weaker-than-expected 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 914.4k, down 123.7k. Fed funds futures traders continue to raise rate-cutting bets. Until last week, they expected 100 basis points of cuts in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1.04mn, up 177.9k. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” The quote is from Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, in his keynote address … Continued
With mixed macro messages, small-caps, which tend to have high domestic economic exposure, struggle to gain traction. The Russell 2000 remains under its November 2021 high. The sell-side is very optimistic about next year’s earnings, but it is prudent to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 860.2k, up 84k. FOMC minutes for the July (30-31) meeting will come out Wednesday. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 776.2k, up 47.7k. At 3.94 percent, the 10-year treasury yield remains under four percent but is substantially off Monday’s intraday low of 3.67 percent … Continued
Until 8:30 Friday morning, the consensus firmed believed in Goldilocks. July’s weaker-than-expected jobs report quickly changed this into heightened odds of a recession. How this shakes out in the sessions ahead will be telling. If the bulls are still in … Continued