Overbought equities took it on the chin last week, with the S&P 500 producing a bearish candle on the weekly. But before the bears could hang their hat on this, the ratio of VIX to VXV may not fully cooperate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 29, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 896.6k, up 147.1k. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman did something that has not happened since 1993. They dissented in this week’s FOMC meeting. … Continued
With index-level short interest near record highs, equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. But with so much riding on Magnificent 7, which have already rallied big into earnings, the possibility of a sell-the-news phenomenon cannot be rejected outright. At … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 22, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.5k, down 22.8k. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week. The two-day (Tuesday-Wednesday) affair will be the fifth scheduled meeting this year, … Continued
VIX has gone flat the last four weeks, even as the S&P 500 is posting newer highs. Yes, large-cap indices scored important breakouts four weeks ago, but meaningfully building on it is proving difficult. The S&P 500’s earnings yield is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 15, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 772.4k, down 68.2k. The 10-year treasury yield edged up a basis point this week to 4.43 percent, but not before ticking 4.49 percent intraday … Continued
A doji or a long-legged doji formed on all the major equity indices last week. With the June-quarter earnings beginning in earnest this week, the reporting companies are looking at a lower hurdle, thanks to a persistent downward revision in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 8, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 840.6k, up 56.9k. Once again, non-commercials are adding to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, with this week adding 7.3 percent … Continued
The major equity indices are building on breakout that took place two weeks ago. This comes amidst already-high valuation multiples and near-record equity allocation by US households. However, with the 2Q earnings reporting season about to get underway, investor sentiment … Continued
Large-caps broke out to new highs last week. Concurrently, Nasdaq/NYSE short interest – just below their respective highs – remains elevated; equity bulls can take advantage of this should they succeed in engineering a squeeze. Buybacks in this regard have … Continued