After dropping by low double digits from their February all-time highs, the major large-cap equity indices are showing signs of a bottom – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Between February 19th when the S&P 500 reached a fresh intraday high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 881.4k, up 144.3k. As expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate steady at a range of 425 basis points to 450 basis points. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 737.1k, up 25k. In the futures market, traders are once again betting that there would be at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 699.9k, down 9.7k. Non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures are down nearly 39 percent from the record 1.1 million contracts in the week … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 751k, up 43.3k. FOMC minutes for the January 28-29 meeting will be out Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 567.9k, down 104.5k. The 10-year treasury yield reached five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise) in October 2023 before coming under pressure. Last September, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 732.9k, down 142.8k. In the 12 months to November, headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 2.44 percent and 2.82 percent respectively. These … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 875.7k, down 16.2k. The futures market is now factoring in a 96-percent chance of a 25-basis-point reduction when the FOMC meets next week. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 891.9k, down 34.7k. The futures market is now factoring in an 86-percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut when the FOMC meets on 17-18 this … Continued
Small-cap bulls had to wait three long years to see a new high on the Russell 2000, but they failed to hang on to the gains last week. They have achieved this feat at a time when 2024 earnings are … Continued