Major U.S. equity indices have rallied massively – particularly since the lows of December 2018. Throughout this, money-market funds kept rising. In recent weeks, they have dropped a tad. If this is the beginning of a trend, bulls will be … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 398.9k, up 40k. The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come. Since late September last … Continued
RVX is clinging on to support. A breakdown may help small-cap bulls near term, as the Russell 2000 itself is at/near resistance. That said, a ratio between the index and the S&P 500 just made a multi-year low. RVX, which … Continued
There is a divergence in progress in the U.S. job market. Historically, non-farm job creation and openings move in tandem. They are currently going their separate ways. In December, non-farm job openings fell 364,000 month-over-month to 6.42 million. They have … Continued
Debt addiction is pervasive among consumers, corporations as well as the federal government. Several debt-related metrics are in uncharted territories. The craving is built into the system and can continue until markets rebel. In December, U.S. consumer credit grew 4.7 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.9k, up 88.5k. One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed! In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went … Continued
US home prices continue to rise. Consumer sentiment is more or less sideways at an elevated level. Supply of homes is limited. The cycle marches on. Nationally, using the S&P Case-Shiller national home price index, US home prices appreciated 3.5 … Continued
Bulls put foot down. Bears had an opening but were unable to make much out of it. Another opportunity to take on the snorting bulls may be just around the corner. Since the S&P 500 large cap index (3297.59) peaked … Continued
Up 3.3 percent at one time, the S&P 500 ended January down 0.2 percent. ‘As January goes, so goes the year’ adage is not fail-safe but worth paying attention to. Not the least because the index rallied nearly 29 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 270.5k, down 32.1k. The Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The post-Great Recession recovery/expansion has been uneven, but jobs … Continued