The S&P 500 had not even dropped 10 percent from its record high from last month that there were calls for a 75-basis-point cut in an emergency Fed meeting. Three decades of the so-called Fed put have distorted the markets … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 776.2k, up 47.7k. At 3.94 percent, the 10-year treasury yield remains under four percent but is substantially off Monday’s intraday low of 3.67 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 728.5k, up 86.5k. July’s jobs report was weaker than expected, with a gain of 114,000 non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 641.9k, up 4.4k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth meeting this year, and three more remain. It is certain the … Continued
The Russell 2000’s 250-point surge over six sessions took many by surprise, not the least of which are those who were on the shorting side. This also comes at a time of probable economic deceleration ahead and a question mark … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 637.5k, up 219.6k. Non-commercials showed aggression in raising net shorts in 10-year-note futures to a 19-week high. In the week to January 16th, they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 417.9k, up 72.5k. Futures traders this week jacked up their rate-cutting bets for this year. They now expect, with 90 percent probability, the first … Continued
After June’s CPI Thursday, markets are heavily betting a September rate cut is all but certain. For equity bulls, who have rallied the indices massively on the back of ‘a rate cut is coming,’ this could very well mark a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
Low savings rate, falling deposits and levered-up consumers could be a precursor to a pullback in spending. Later this morning, May’s personal income/spending data will be published. This series also contains the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index measuring inflation. … Continued