Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 417.9k, up 72.5k. Futures traders this week jacked up their rate-cutting bets for this year. They now expect, with 90 percent probability, the first … Continued
After June’s CPI Thursday, markets are heavily betting a September rate cut is all but certain. For equity bulls, who have rallied the indices massively on the back of ‘a rate cut is coming,’ this could very well mark a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
Low savings rate, falling deposits and levered-up consumers could be a precursor to a pullback in spending. Later this morning, May’s personal income/spending data will be published. This series also contains the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index measuring inflation. … Continued
The S&P 500 is on course for a third straight up quarter, with a touch of ‘parabolic’ to it. Buybacks and margin debt have provided a tailwind, although the latter in particular points to a lack of aggressive willingness to … Continued
As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 307.7k, down 147.1k. The 10-year treasury yield peaked last October at five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise), subsequently bottoming at 3.79 percent in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 454.8k, up 66.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fourth meeting this year, and four more remain. The fed funds has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued
The 10-year T-yield has rallied to the upper end of a symmetrical triangle. A sustained breakout can have massive repercussions, as this may be a signal that bond vigilantes are finally demanding higher yields in the face of soaring federal … Continued