Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 645.2k, up 21.4k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield break out of 4.09 percent, which resisted rally attempts in February and early July, … Continued
Since last October’s bottom in stocks, trillions in additional wealth have been added. Prices headed north, even as earnings headed south, helping push up multiples. This also makes equity bulls, who are sitting on loads of paper profit, jittery, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 623.8k, down 5.8k. This week, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 525 basis points … Continued
Having raised the fed funds rate by 525 basis points over 14 months, the Fed is under pressure to stop, but is not willing to commit to that. The culprits are sticky core inflation and financial conditions that are easing. … Continued
Several leading stocks such as MSFT and AAPL posted new highs last week and then reversed lower. This took place just ahead of 2Q earnings results and indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have had massive … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 629.6k, down 5.6k. The FOMC meets next week. Ahead of this, the fed funds rate was left unchanged in the June meeting, pausing for … Continued
Tech has surprised everyone with its out-of-the-park performance this year. Even within tech, XLK outperforms QQQ, as the former posted a new high this week while the latter is still below its November 2021 high. It turns out XLK is … Continued
The S&P 500 is attempting to break out of a rising channel at a time when metric after metric is yelling overbought. Concurrently, the potential for short squeeze is less and less. On the S&P 500, equity bulls notched up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 635.1k, down 145.5k. Last week’s channel breakout did not amount to much this week. Last October, the 10-year treasury yield retreated after tagging 4.33 … Continued
Equity bulls are in command. From last October’s low through Thursday’s high, the S&P 500 is up north of 29 percent. Several indicators that looked panicky back then are approaching the other extreme. At this juncture, investors face a much … Continued