It is a make-or-break time for small-caps. Having been under pressure since last November’s peak, the Russell 2000 has defended must-hold 1700, closing last week just under 1900, a takeout of which will bolster odds of more strength. The Russell … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,078.5k, up 215.2k. Non-commercials raised net shorts in 10-year note futures by 24.9 percent this week to 1.08 million contracts – now merely 6.1 … Continued
Amid fears of tariffs-induced economic slowdown/contraction and indiscriminate selling of stocks, equity bulls are hoping for signs of stability and a relief rally. It has been 11 quarters since the US economy shrank. The contraction took place in 1Q22, dropping … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.3k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the March 18-19 meeting will be out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was left steady at a range … Continued
Through 4Q24, buybacks continued to act as a tailwind, while margin debt fell in February from January’s fresh record. The latter in particular is at risk of continued downward pressure. At the end of the December quarter, US households’ equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 25, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 810.1k, down 71.3k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures sequentially, but holdings remain elevated. In the week to October 1st last year, … Continued
After dropping by low double digits from their February all-time highs, the major large-cap equity indices are showing signs of a bottom – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Between February 19th when the S&P 500 reached a fresh intraday high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 881.4k, up 144.3k. As expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate steady at a range of 425 basis points to 450 basis points. … Continued
Equities have been under pressure the last several weeks. Investor sentiment has taken a beating. Amidst this came signs last Friday that a relief could be in the making. With the major equity indices under selling pressure for at least … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 737.1k, up 25k. In the futures market, traders are once again betting that there would be at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the fed … Continued