As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 307.7k, down 147.1k. The 10-year treasury yield peaked last October at five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise), subsequently bottoming at 3.79 percent in … Continued
Small-caps get no love. They have not for a while. Unlike its large-cap peers that keep making new highs, the Russell 2000 remains substantially below its November 2021 high. The index ceased to respond to solid jobs picture as early … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 454.8k, up 66.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fourth meeting this year, and four more remain. The fed funds has … Continued
Both Monday and last Friday, VIX failed to keep most of its gains. Amidst this, there is strong support at 11-12, and a 10- and 20-day crossover seems imminent. Concurrently, the S&P 500 formed back-to-back hanging man, which is bearish … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued
The 10-year T-yield has rallied to the upper end of a symmetrical triangle. A sustained breakout can have massive repercussions, as this may be a signal that bond vigilantes are finally demanding higher yields in the face of soaring federal … Continued
Equity bears had a great session last Thursday as a bearish engulfing candle developed on several indices, but bulls promptly denied them continued momentum on Friday. This week is key. From last October’s low through last Thursday’s high, the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 401k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the April 30-May 1 meeting out Wednesday showed members were worried over slow progress on inflation. For the … Continued
An overbought market that increasingly looked fatigued used Thursday’s NVDA-ignited early pop as an opportunity to lock in gains. After this intraday reversal, bulls are running out of catalysts – for now. On the 15th (this month) when April’s softer-than-expected … Continued