In a seasonally favorable period, new highs keep coming for the major US equity indices. This has pushed several sentiment indicators into gross overbought territory. The S&P 500 last Friday enjoyed its 56th all-time high for the year. With three … Continued
The S&P 500 is unable to decisively build on post-FOMC breakout. Amidst this, plenty of optimism is already built into options, and VIX acts like it wants higher prints. On the 19th, the day after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, … Continued
Since last October’s bottom, tech has led. How it behaves in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate through the stock market. This week’s downward pressure is coming in the backdrop of exuberant sentiment. After several weeks of giving out … Continued
Equity bears had a great session last Thursday as a bearish engulfing candle developed on several indices, but bulls promptly denied them continued momentum on Friday. This week is key. From last October’s low through last Thursday’s high, the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued
Even though Chair Powell said it is far too early to declare victory, he and his team did exactly that yesterday when they caught markets by surprise by making a hard dovish turn. The dot plot now expects up to … Continued
Complacency among equity bulls is growing but not extreme yet. With the S&P 500 ending last week right at the July high and breakout odds rising post-FOMC Wednesday, options-related sentiment readings can soon begin to flash red. From July 27th … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 5, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 636.5k, down 48.9k. The FOMC meets next Tuesday-Wednesday. This will be the year’s last meeting. They are expected to do nothing. The last hike … Continued
After being under pressure for a couple of months, the S&P 500 has approached an area of potentially crucial support. This takes place even as pessimism is heavy in the options market. From its July 27th high of 4607 through … Continued