Stocks at a crossroads, rallies will probably get sold for now

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

With massive inflows just last week, stocks need another to stay afloat With at least three important events on calendar, Jan can throw wrench in the works With stocks holding up amidst signs of preference for risk-off; opportunity to sell … Continued

Euro cannot catch break, approaches another support

posted in: Currency, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

Ahead of ECB meeting, euro misery continues Draghi under pressure to deliver news of more stimulus Large speculators look tentative and sitting on massive net shorts When early October, FXE, the euro ETF, was unable to hold on to 126-127, … Continued

Equities hammering out near-term bottom

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued

Draghi handout — or lack thereof — this AM to decide euro’s N/T fate

FXE breaks one more crucial technical support Large speculators’ euro net shorts at 26-mo high, but flattish in recent weeks Market reaction to Draghi’s asset-purchase plans will be a tell regarding euro’s near-term direction Still a wait-and-see on the euro … Continued

One common reason why Fed, ECB and BoJ hanker for inflation

posted in: Currency, Economy | 0

Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued

Draghi surprises; FXE downtrend accelerates, nears support

As discussed last week that non-commercial futures traders might just once again be ahead of the curve in anticipating market reaction to Thursday’s ECB decision, they indeed were.  By Tuesday (last week), they had raised net shorts in euro futures … Continued

Beaten-down euro’s next move — look for clues in futures markets

The expected decline in the euro never came.  Back on August 11, it looked like the currency was ready for a bounce.  Just a bounce, as long-term technicals were only midway through unwinding overbought conditions hence did not call for … Continued

With monetary quiver empty, are central banks ready to add arrows?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting committee, voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in August, the minutes released yesterday showed.  Market participants were taken by surprise.  They have been conditioned … Continued