Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued
January saw margin debt only inch up, even as the S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent. This divergence, should it continue in the months ahead, could end up helping equity bears more than the bulls. The S&P 500 opened 2024 with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 760.5k, down 67.9k. FOMC minutes for the January 30-31 meeting are due out Wednesday. The policy-making body stood pat at that meeting, with the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.7k, down 104.7k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the first meeting this year, and seven more – the scheduled ones – remain. … Continued
The S&P 500 last week joined its peers to break out to new highs. More gains are likely in the near term. Mid-to long-term prospects are dependent on if the recent improvement seen in margin debt and equity flows persists. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 889.4k, up 102.4k. At an annualized $709.9 billion, December’s retail sales were strong, better than expected and set a record. January’s preliminary count showed … Continued
The December 13th Fed pivot lit a fire under risk assets, leading equity shorts to cover and ETF inflows to jump. Flows, however, began to turn negative as the new year began. This does not help the equity bulls, even … Continued