Tech is radiating this year and small-caps are in slumber. A ratio between the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 is nearing a March 2000 record high. A failure here can begin a process of unwinding the overbought condition the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 771.6k, up 79.2k. It took them a while, but futures traders have at long last stopped wasting money expecting an improbable outcome. Until last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 692.4k, down 39.3k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 731.7k, down 17.4k. This week, April’s CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) were published. Both showed continued decelerating trend in inflation … Continued
Small-cap bulls once again were forced to defend the lower bound of the 1700-1900 range in place since January last year. The Russell 2000 just does not respond to the optimistic growth forecasts in earnings for this year and particularly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.1k, up 8.9k. The Federal Reserve’s job is not getting any easier. On Wednesday, post-FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell dropped hints that they were … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, up 41k. Non-commercials added another 41,004 contracts to their already-elevated holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. The 680,081 count is the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 639k, up 18k. The 10-year treasury yield (3.52 percent) dropped from 4.33 percent last October to the low six sessions ago of 3.25 percent. … Continued
Ahead of Wednesday’s March CPI and after a nice two- to three-week rally, sellers show up at important resistance on major US equity indices. With the daily in overbought territory, the bias is to the downside near term. Trader expectations … Continued