Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.6k, up 120.4k. As expected, the FOMC this week left the fed funds rate unchanged at a range of 425 basis points to 450 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 580.2k, up 12.3k. The FOMC meets next week. The 28-29 meeting is the first this year. It is certain the fed funds rate will … Continued
Earnings Season is upon us. Fourth-quarter estimates for S&P 500 companies customarily have been gradually revised lower over the past several months. Heading into this, equities rallied huge last week, although the major US indices are off their December highs. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 567.9k, down 104.5k. The 10-year treasury yield reached five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise) in October 2023 before coming under pressure. Last September, … Continued
Last Friday was painful for equity bulls, as strength in the labor market forced markets to rerate rate-cut hopes. But the major US equity indices were already under pressure as bears defended crucial technical resistance. December was unique in that … Continued
Unlike its large-cap cousins such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000 gained last week. It is too early to read too much into this. But odds favor strength in all these indices in the sessions … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 732.9k, down 142.8k. In the 12 months to November, headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 2.44 percent and 2.82 percent respectively. These … Continued
The S&P 500 is up north of 27 percent year-to-date – the second consecutive year of gains of north of 20 percent. Buybacks and margin debt are cooperating, but several other measures are pointing to extended conditions. With 10 sessions … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 875.7k, down 16.2k. The futures market is now factoring in a 96-percent chance of a 25-basis-point reduction when the FOMC meets next week. In … Continued
In a seasonally favorable period, new highs keep coming for the major US equity indices. This has pushed several sentiment indicators into gross overbought territory. The S&P 500 last Friday enjoyed its 56th all-time high for the year. With three … Continued