The Russell 2000 has finally joined the S&P 500 in reaching new highs. Lower interest rates, and hopes for more, likely triggered the move. The path ahead is not so clear. Bulls could be either looking at a massive breakout … Continued
The jobs market has meaningfully decelerated the last four months. In the futures market, traders are pricing in six cuts in the next 15 months. The major equity indices are sitting on tons of gains from the April lows; concurrently, … Continued
Overbought equities took it on the chin last week, with the S&P 500 producing a bearish candle on the weekly. But before the bears could hang their hat on this, the ratio of VIX to VXV may not fully cooperate … Continued
Small-caps are showing some improved action. With so many false dawns in the past, bulls hope this lasts and that the economy is headed for Goldilocks, as too hot or too cold may not suit their bias. Small-caps have spring … Continued
The S&P 500 is unable to decisively build on post-FOMC breakout. Amidst this, plenty of optimism is already built into options, and VIX acts like it wants higher prints. On the 19th, the day after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, … Continued
It is early, but tech is beginning to lag. This is taking place even as the Fed is getting ready to begin an easing cycle. Historically, stocks tend to rally into this and then head lower. Tech is beginning to … Continued
With mixed macro messages, small-caps, which tend to have high domestic economic exposure, struggle to gain traction. The Russell 2000 remains under its November 2021 high. The sell-side is very optimistic about next year’s earnings, but it is prudent to … Continued
The S&P 500 had not even dropped 10 percent from its record high from last month that there were calls for a 75-basis-point cut in an emergency Fed meeting. Three decades of the so-called Fed put have distorted the markets … Continued
Until 8:30 Friday morning, the consensus firmed believed in Goldilocks. July’s weaker-than-expected jobs report quickly changed this into heightened odds of a recession. How this shakes out in the sessions ahead will be telling. If the bulls are still in … Continued
The Russell 2000’s 250-point surge over six sessions took many by surprise, not the least of which are those who were on the shorting side. This also comes at a time of probable economic deceleration ahead and a question mark … Continued