August’s CPI report dealt a fatal blow to market hopes for a 50-basis-point cut next week. Nevertheless, futures traders are betting that the Fed would lower rates by 250 basis points in the next one year, beginning with 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,002.8k, up 88.4k. The economy produced a weaker-than-expected 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 914.4k, down 123.7k. Fed funds futures traders continue to raise rate-cutting bets. Until last week, they expected 100 basis points of cuts in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1.04mn, up 177.9k. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” The quote is from Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, in his keynote address … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 860.2k, up 84k. FOMC minutes for the July (30-31) meeting will come out Wednesday. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at … Continued
The S&P 500 had not even dropped 10 percent from its record high from last month that there were calls for a 75-basis-point cut in an emergency Fed meeting. Three decades of the so-called Fed put have distorted the markets … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 776.2k, up 47.7k. At 3.94 percent, the 10-year treasury yield remains under four percent but is substantially off Monday’s intraday low of 3.67 percent … Continued
Until 8:30 Friday morning, the consensus firmed believed in Goldilocks. July’s weaker-than-expected jobs report quickly changed this into heightened odds of a recession. How this shakes out in the sessions ahead will be telling. If the bulls are still in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 728.5k, up 86.5k. July’s jobs report was weaker than expected, with a gain of 114,000 non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 641.9k, up 4.4k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth meeting this year, and three more remain. It is certain the … Continued