Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 875.7k, down 16.2k. The futures market is now factoring in a 96-percent chance of a 25-basis-point reduction when the FOMC meets next week. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 891.9k, down 34.7k. The futures market is now factoring in an 86-percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut when the FOMC meets on 17-18 this … Continued
Small-cap bulls had to wait three long years to see a new high on the Russell 2000, but they failed to hang on to the gains last week. They have achieved this feat at a time when 2024 earnings are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 907.5k, up 91.7k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week strong with Monday touching 4.49 percent intraday but only to reverse and close at … Continued
The Russell 2000 just made a three-year round trip but fell slightly short of posting a new high. The economy continues to perform well – a plus – but long rates have diverged with short rates, which cannot be a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.8k, down 2.5k. On the back of stronger-than-expected data – from consumer and wholesale inflation to retail sales as well as Chair Jerome Powell’s … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 818.3k, down 82.9k. The fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points as expected. The benchmark rates are now down 75 basis points … Continued
After seven consecutive up weeks, the Nasdaq 100 went negative last week. Bulls came so close but were denied a new high. This is occurring even as breadth is in divergence with the index. Tech bears last week finally achieved … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 901.2k, up 53k. The FOMC meets next week on Tuesday-Wednesday. A 25-basis-point cut is priced in. Immediately after the policy-setting body reduced the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.2k, down 16.9k. Non-commercials have reduced their net shorts in 10-year note futures by 25.9 percent from the week to October 1 when they … Continued