Stocks have rallied huge since last October’s lows. Breadth, however, has been a problem. Large-caps are outperforming, and even here, just a handful are leading the way. Mid- and small-caps are lagging. Amidst this bifurcation, mid-caps have now rallied within … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued
With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued
January saw margin debt only inch up, even as the S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent. This divergence, should it continue in the months ahead, could end up helping equity bears more than the bulls. The S&P 500 opened 2024 with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 760.5k, down 67.9k. FOMC minutes for the January 30-31 meeting are due out Wednesday. The policy-making body stood pat at that meeting, with the … Continued
US equities sold off Tuesday – apparently in reaction to higher-than-expected CPI readings for January. The consensus may have expected better prints, but the fact remains that last month’s y/y change was better than December’s. The disinflation trend is intact. … Continued
Small-cap earnings are coming in much weaker than expected when these companies began reporting the fourth quarter – or even when the December quarter began. Small-business optimism remains subdued. Yet, the sell-side expects blockbuster earnings this year. The Russell 2000 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued
January ended up 1.6 percent. Historically, an up January bodes well for the rest of the year. This may very well be the case this year, but one should not be oblivious of how overbought the S&P 500 is. Following … Continued