The 2Q earnings season begins next week in earnest. The bar is low. Ahead of this, large-caps are leading but economically-sensitive small-caps are lagging. The latter likely is eyeing the 500-basis-point rise in the fed funds rate since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 801k, up 51k. FOMC minutes for the June 13-14 meeting are due out Wednesday. In that meeting, after raising the fed funds rate uninterrupted … Continued
Both large- and small-caps failed at crucial resistance last week. Investor focus shifted toward fundamentals that could wobble in the months and quarters ahead. The upward move in equities since last October’s low was a technical move, unwinding the oversold … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 20, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 750k, up 58.1k. The Bank of England’s unexpected 50-basis-point hike on Thursday to five percent highlights central bankers’ increasing frustration with inflation that is … Continued
The dichotomy between large- and small-caps continues – the former at 14-month high and the latter stuck in an 18-month range. That said, the S&P 500 has reached a potentially crucial resistance. Buybacks have been providing a nice tailwind. Margin … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 13, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.9k, down 61.8k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures for the second week in a row. In the last couple of weeks, … Continued
After a rip-roaring rally since last October’s bottom, major US indices stopped at what could turn out to be make-or-break resistance. Sentiment is not frothy but elevated enough to cause unwinding, and multiples have only expanded since the end of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 753.7k, down 96.7k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. After raising the fed funds rate by 500 basis points since March last … Continued
Investor sentiment is elevated. This is also evident in the CBOE put-to-call ratio and in VIX. Fund flows, however, continue to remain anemic even though the S&P 500 has rallied north of 20 percent from last October’s lows. Unless fund … Continued
After many attempts, the Russell 2000 won back 1800 last week. But it is too soon to declare a trend change. A bigger hurdle lies at 1900. The Fed is as determined as ever to cool inflation and hurt the … Continued