The S&P 500 continues to break out to new – and newer – highs. Buybacks have provided a sustained tailwind, although interesting dynamics are in play for next year. Yet another week, yet another record and yet another breakout! Last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 960.1k, down 183.8k. The 10-year treasury yield continued to rally – now up four weeks in a row, with the addition of nine more … Continued
Equity bulls ended the S&P 500 last week just under a potentially breakout point. But not all the wheels are in motion. On the Nasdaq 100, which remains under its July high, sellers showed up seven sessions ago as soon … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,143.9k, up 118.6k. Yet another record high in non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures! These traders are obviously positioned for higher rates, and … Continued
The S&P 500 is unable to decisively build on post-FOMC breakout. Amidst this, plenty of optimism is already built into options, and VIX acts like it wants higher prints. On the 19th, the day after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,025.3k, down 68.7k. In August, headline and core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation metric, increased 2.24 percent and 2.68 percent, in … Continued
Equities failed to rally last Wednesday, when the FOMC handed out a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Stocks had a very nice session on Thursday. With that said, the last three daily candles on the S&P 500, which did rise to a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,094k, up 71.9k. The fed funds rate was cut by 50 basis points to a range of 475 basis points to 500 basis points. … Continued
The S&P 500 sits less than a percent from its July high and is positioned well for a breakout. The Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are nowhere near their respective highs, but they too have breakout opportunities to add … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,022.1k, up 19.3k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting next Tuesday. This will be the sixth meeting this year, and two more remain – … Continued