Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the major equity indices last week all rallied toward their October highs, even as short-term indicators got further pushed into overbought territory. The meeting likely becomes a sell-the-news phenomenon. The Russell 2000 finished up … Continued
Equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. With index-level short interest at/near record, longs, if successful, will be able to build on last week’s positive momentum. Seasonality is on their side, but it is equally possible this potential tailwind has … Continued
Stocks are on the backfoot, with bulls continuing to hang on to optimism for lower rates and bears beginning to benefit from extended multiples plus weakening technicals. Near-term, bulls are likely to benefit from last Friday’s intraday reversal, even as … Continued
Going into last week, investors were keenly focused on a couple of things: FOMC meeting and Big Tech earnings. Benchmark interest rates were lowered on Wednesday, but there was no commitment to do so again in December. And, with 5 … Continued
With massive gains post-April lows, the major US equity indices are showing signs of fatigue. This is taking place a couple of weeks before the upcoming FOMC meeting in which markets have locked in a 25-basis-point cut in the fed … Continued
After multiple attempts, the Russell 2000 has finally pushed through 2300 – on rate-cut hopes. This sentiment is also evident in the recent rise in small-business optimism, although it is not yet translated into increased job openings. Uncertainty remains – … Continued
Markets have amped up rate-cut expectations for both this year and next, with some even ludicrously calling for a 50-basis-point reduction in next month’s FOMC meeting. Inflation has trended higher the last four-five months. This makes it difficult for the … Continued
Last Friday was painful for equity bulls, as strength in the labor market forced markets to rerate rate-cut hopes. But the major US equity indices were already under pressure as bears defended crucial technical resistance. December was unique in that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,022.1k, up 19.3k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting next Tuesday. This will be the sixth meeting this year, and two more remain – … Continued
August’s CPI report dealt a fatal blow to market hopes for a 50-basis-point cut next week. Nevertheless, futures traders are betting that the Fed would lower rates by 250 basis points in the next one year, beginning with 25 basis … Continued