Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 818.3k, down 82.9k. The fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points as expected. The benchmark rates are now down 75 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 901.2k, up 53k. The FOMC meets next week on Tuesday-Wednesday. A 25-basis-point cut is priced in. Immediately after the policy-setting body reduced the fed … Continued
Leading into this week’s 3Q reports from five tech heavyweights, the Nasdaq 100 has not made much progress the last couple of weeks. These results will have repercussions for other market cap-weighted indices, such as the S&P 500, where both … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.2k, down 16.9k. Non-commercials have reduced their net shorts in 10-year note futures by 25.9 percent from the week to October 1 when they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 865.1k, down 95.1k. In the week to October 1, non-commercials were net short a record 1,143,889 contracts in 10-year note futures. In the subsequent … Continued
The S&P 500 continues to break out to new – and newer – highs. Buybacks have provided a sustained tailwind, although interesting dynamics are in play for next year. Yet another week, yet another record and yet another breakout! Last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 960.1k, down 183.8k. The 10-year treasury yield continued to rally – now up four weeks in a row, with the addition of nine more … Continued
Equity bulls ended the S&P 500 last week just under a potentially breakout point. But not all the wheels are in motion. On the Nasdaq 100, which remains under its July high, sellers showed up seven sessions ago as soon … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,143.9k, up 118.6k. Yet another record high in non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures! These traders are obviously positioned for higher rates, and … Continued
The S&P 500 is unable to decisively build on post-FOMC breakout. Amidst this, plenty of optimism is already built into options, and VIX acts like it wants higher prints. On the 19th, the day after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, … Continued