The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
Today is one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in a long time, if not ever. Markets expect a hike. The Fed has convinced them of that. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 83-percent chance of a hike. The … Continued
Back on October 12th when SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, was trading at $201.52, October 16th weekly 202.50 calls were hypothetically sold for $0.84. Once assigned, this resulted in effective short at $203.34. Three weekly short puts later, and … Continued
On the surface, the carnage in stocks last Friday may look like it came out of nowhere, but signs were there. Up until December 1st, the S&P 500 large cap index was a mere 1.5 percent off the all-time high … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
Next week, the FOMC meets. The two-day meeting, the year’s last and a highly anticipated one, ends Wednesday. A rate hike is widely expected. The fed funds rate has been stuck near zero for the past nine years. Markets currently … Continued
After the drubbing stocks took post-ECB disappointment last Thursday, bulls could not have asked for better reaction on Friday. Stocks in general recouped Thursday’s loss, and then some. The S&P 500 index rallied 2.1 percent on Friday (Chart 1), in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
Growth in U.S. corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments dipped into the negative territory in 3Q15 – both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion, they compared with $2.08 trillion in 2Q15 … Continued